Current EU Outlook

Since 2015 the AGMEMOD network has participated in the process through which the European Commission’s Directorate General for Agriculture has produced its annual medium-term agricultural outlook for the EU. The EC medium-term outlook is framed at the EU level, while AGMEMOD produces linked projections of agricultural activity and agricultural commodity supply and use developments for individual EU Member States that contribute to the report.

AGMEMOD Baseline projections cover the main agricultural products over a medium-term projection horizon (10 years). The agricultural products modelled by AGMEMOD include all major cereals and oilseeds (rapeseed and sunflower seed), livestock (cattle, pigs, goats and sheep), sugar, meat (beef, pork, poultry and sheep meat), milk and dairy products (drinking milk, butter, cheese, skimmed milk powder, whole milk and semi-skimmed milk powder). The product coverage is also extended occasionally. The latest developments are projections for selected fruit and vegetables.

The AGMEMOD model produces medium-term projections of agricultural activity levels (areas, livestock numbers), productivity indicators (yields per hectare and per animal), commodity supply and use balance elements (production, imports, exports, domestic use) as well as farm gate and commodity market prices.

Our contribution focused on:

• 2015: Pork
• 2016: Dairy
• 2017: Beef
• 2018: Cereals
• 2019: Sugar and sweeteners
• 2020: Tomatoes and apples
• 2021: Olives and olive oil
• 2022: Oilseed complex
• 2023: Apples, Peaches and Nectarine, Tomatoes

You can find the current AGMEMOD medium term projections here.