Welcome to the AGMEMOD Project
AGMEMOD is a network of agricultural economists working with a partial equilibrium model, also called AGMEMOD. The name stands for Agricultural Member State Modelling. In the earlier stages of AGMEMOD, the AGMEMOD network consisted of economists from EU Member States and EU Candidate Countries (Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey) and other European countries (Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan). An annual Outlook is produced at Member State level for the European Union.
Since 2013, economists from diverse African countries have implemented the AGMEMOD model and work with it on a regular basis to analyse the effects of national policies on agricultural commodity markets. The objectives of the African countries working with AGMEMOD are mainly: to identify policies to abate poverty or to provide advice to stakeholders from the African Union (AU) or from their national countries on the effects of agricultural policies on food security. AGMEMOD country models, in the African context, are available for Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Rwanda. All modelling groups that become members of the AGMEMOD network sign an agreement concerning the common ownership of the models developed and associated analytic results.
Current EU Outlook
Since 2015 the AGMEMOD network has participated in the process through which the European Commission’s (EC) Directorate General for Agriculture has produced its annual medium-term agricultural outlook for the EU. The EC medium-term outlook is framed at the EU level, while AGMEMOD produces linked projections of agricultural activity and agricultural commodity supply and use developments for individual EU Member States that contribute to the report.
AGMEMOD Baseline projections cover the main agricultural products over a medium terms projection horizon that currently extends to 2030. The agricultural products modelled by AGMEMOD include all major cereals and oilseeds (rapeseed and sunflower seed), sugar, livestock (cattle, pigs, goats and sheep), meat (beef, pork, poultry and sheep meat), milk and dairy products (drinking milk, butter, cheese, skimmed milk powder, whole milk and semi-skimmed milk powder).
The AGMEMOD model produces medium term projections of agricultural activity levels (areas, livestock numbers), productivity indicators (yields per hectare and per animal) as well as commodity supply and use balance elements (production, imports, exports, domestic use) as well as farm gate and commodity market prices.
You can find the current AGMEMOD medium term projections here.